UK Migration and Wages in 2026: Report Claims British Workers Lose £1,000 a Year
Published: 8 October 2026
A new report has claimed that migration may be costing British workers outside London more than £1,000 a year in lost earnings, reigniting debate over immigration, wages and the UK labour market.
The research, published by Cambridge Circus Research (CCR), a London-based think tank, uses Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax data obtained from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) through freedom of information legislation. According to the report, the growing number of non-UK nationals in employment has coincided with weaker wage growth for British workers across much of England.
The findings have prompted renewed calls for tighter immigration controls, particularly for lower-paid jobs. However, the report acknowledges that its analysis does not definitively establish how much migration itself has contributed to changes in wages.
Report Claims £1,060 Annual Wage Impact Outside London
According to Cambridge Circus Research, the difference between actual earnings and its estimated alternative wage trajectory widened to £18.2 billion in 2025.
The think tank estimates that this represents approximately £1,060 for every British worker outside London. It also suggests that British workers may have experienced a cumulative earnings shortfall of £78 billion over the past decade.
These figures represent the researcher’s estimates of what wages might have been under a different set of labour market conditions. They should not be interpreted as direct evidence that every British worker lost this amount because of immigration.
The report’s author, economics graduate Hubert Kucharski, argues that migration has affected workers’ earnings as well as employment patterns.
The analysis places particular emphasis on lower-paid workers, suggesting that any wage pressure may be reflected more in hourly pay than in the number of hours worked.
Migrants Accounted for 80% of New Jobs, Report Says
The research examines employment changes between 2015 and 2025 across England’s 147 local authorities, including London’s boroughs and the City of London.
Its findings suggest that approximately 2.8 million additional jobs were created during the period. Of these, the report estimates that around 2.3 million, or 80%, went to foreign nationals.
The study also claims that the number of jobs held by foreign nationals increased by roughly two-thirds, while employment among British workers grew by less than 3%.
Based on these figures, CCR argues that foreign workers accounted for a substantial proportion of employment growth over the past decade.
However, the share of new jobs taken by foreign nationals does not, by itself, establish that migration caused wages to fall or that British workers would otherwise have filled those positions. Other factors, including population changes, labour demand, skills shortages and economic conditions, may also influence employment and earnings.
Why London Was Excluded From the Main Wage Estimate
Cambridge Circus Research excluded London from its headline wage calculations, arguing that the capital has a different employment and migration profile from the rest of England.
According to the report, a larger proportion of migrants arriving in London come from higher-income countries, potentially raising median earnings and making the capital less comparable with other areas.
The author suggests that including London could reduce the estimated annual wage gap to approximately £390 per worker, or potentially less.
The difference highlights how geographical and demographic factors can affect estimates of migration’s relationship with earnings.
Lower-Paid Industries Under Scrutiny
The report points to sectors such as hospitality, retail, food processing and social care, where employers have recruited substantial numbers of workers and where wages are often relatively low.
CCR suggests that increased competition for jobs in these sectors may contribute to weaker pay growth, particularly for workers with fewer qualifications or limited bargaining power.
The think tank argues that employers’ access to overseas labour could reduce incentives to raise wages, improve working conditions or invest in training domestic workers.
Nevertheless, the relationship between migration and wages is complex. The effects can vary by occupation, location, skill level and the wider state of the economy. Migrant workers also fill roles in sectors facing recruitment difficulties and contribute to economic activity as employees, consumers and taxpayers.
The report’s findings therefore form part of a wider debate about how immigration interacts with labour market conditions rather than providing a definitive explanation for every change in British wages.
Think Tank Calls for Tougher Immigration Rules
Cambridge Circus Research is calling on the UK Government to introduce further restrictions on overseas recruitment for lower-paid jobs.
Its recommendations include:
- Ending visas for lower-paid employment.
- Setting higher salary requirements for skilled work visas.
- Publishing more detailed information about pay by nationality.
- Improving transparency around employment and wage trends.
The organisation argues that better access to detailed pay data would help policymakers assess the relationship between immigration and earnings more accurately.
However, CCR has not disclosed its funders, according to the supplied report. This is relevant context for readers assessing the organisation’s recommendations and conclusions.
Reform UK Criticises Mass Immigration
The report has also drawn political reactions.
Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary, Zia Yusuf, argued that high levels of immigration under successive Conservative and Labour governments had contributed to financial pressure on British households.
He criticised what he described as the UK’s reliance on lower-cost overseas labour and called for a significant reduction in migration.
His comments reflect Reform UK’s position on immigration policy. They should be distinguished from the report’s statistical estimates and from independently established evidence about the causes of wage changes.
UK Immigration Rules Have Tightened
The debate comes amid significant changes to the UK’s immigration system, including restrictions affecting the occupations eligible for Skilled Worker visas and overseas recruitment in the care sector.
The supplied report states that more than 100 occupations have been removed from the qualifying list for skilled work visas and refers to changes to salary and English-language requirements.
Under the revised system, eligibility depends on the relevant immigration route, the occupation, salary, qualifications and other applicable conditions. Some eligible roles may be subject to different requirements or transitional arrangements.
The Government has also pursued measures intended to reduce reliance on overseas recruitment, encourage domestic skills development and address pressure on housing and public services.
These changes are particularly important for international applicants considering work in the UK, as a vacancy that previously qualified for sponsorship may no longer meet the current requirements.
Applicants should check the latest official guidance before accepting a job offer or paying costs associated with an immigration application.
Net Migration Has Fallen Sharply, Report Says
The article cites Office for National Statistics figures indicating that net migration fell to approximately 171,000 in the previous year, compared with a peak of around 944,000 in 2023.
The figures illustrate the scale of the recent decline in net migration, although changes in migration levels do not, on their own, establish how wages have been affected.
The report’s publication comes as the Government faces pressure to balance its immigration objectives with the staffing needs of employers and public services.
Government Says Its Policies Put British Workers First
A Home Office spokesperson defended the Government’s approach, saying net migration had fallen significantly from its peak and that restrictions on lower-skilled overseas recruitment were intended to reduce pressure on housing, the NHS and public services.
The spokesperson also said the Government wanted to reduce reliance on lower-cost imported labour while continuing to welcome highly skilled workers needed by the UK economy.
The Government’s position reflects its stated aim of prioritising the domestic workforce while retaining routes for eligible international talent.
The challenge for policymakers is to determine how best to address wage stagnation, labour shortages, skills development and public service pressures without creating additional recruitment difficulties in sectors that depend on overseas workers.
What Does the Report Mean for Migrants and UK Jobseekers?
The findings are likely to add to ongoing discussions about the future of UK immigration policy, particularly the availability of work visas for lower-paid occupations.
For British workers, the central questions concern wage growth, job security, training opportunities and whether employers are investing sufficiently in the domestic workforce.
For migrants, the debate highlights the importance of understanding changing visa rules and the possibility of further restrictions on eligible occupations.
Employers, meanwhile, may face greater pressure to demonstrate that they are developing local talent, offering competitive pay and complying with sponsorship requirements.
It is important to distinguish the report’s estimates from proof that migrants as a group are responsible for lower wages. A clearer assessment would require examining other economic influences and comparing outcomes across different occupations, locations and periods.
Conclusion
The Cambridge Circus Research report has intensified debate about whether migration has contributed to weaker wage growth for British workers outside London. Its estimates of a £1,060 annual earnings gap and £78 billion in cumulative lost earnings are significant claims, but they depend on the research’s assumptions about what wages might otherwise have been.
The findings provide another perspective in the debate over immigration and employment. They do not, on their own, establish that migration is the sole or definitive cause of wage stagnation.
As the UK Government continues to revise its immigration system, the challenge will be to protect workers’ pay, improve domestic skills and address genuine labour shortages while ensuring that immigration policy is informed by reliable and transparent evidence.
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